So anyway, what hypotheses do I feel like testing? Oh, yes. I want to look at the distributions of trends in various climate model situations. I think it’s well established that the recent period of temperature stability appears to be explainable via ENSO and solar cycles, with a trend still present in the data (slides 15-22) however I’m curious whether a period of no warming for 12 years is a manifestation of natural variability in models. And if so, is there a subpopulation of models which don’t occassionally have extended periods of no warming? The reason I am curious about this is that the most recent UAH data shows a period of essentially no trend since April 1997, as of today, and also because, while a recent paper:
Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009), Is the climate warming or cooling?,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810.
Focused on the ten year trend in the surface data set, which has issues as pointed out recently by:
Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., J.R. Christy, and R.T. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., in press.
And also, for whatever reason, E&W only seemed interested in asking whether the recent trends were inconsistent with all models-when a much more interesting question is whether there are models which don’t do that which can then be considered individually rejected hypotheses. And of course what that does to the future projections.
That’s the hypothesis I hope to test. To that end, I plan to download some climate model runs. I’ll keep you posted. Any tips or comments are appreciated.