Archive for September, 2009

What’s the word on those tests?

September 22, 2009

The word is: I’m bored and my interest has been directed elsewhere. Shame on me. Never said I had focus. So I’ll think of different things to do until more thorough, formal, and exact tests can be done on the models.

But I want to get your thoughts on other things I could test. So send me any hypotheses or claims that are made by people, and we can test them! 😀

144 Month trend in observations

September 7, 2009

UAH September 1997 to August 2009:

-0.00421516884611802

Model Minimum Trend Values for 144 month periods in A1B runs, Jan 2001 to Dec 2020:

BCCR BCM2.0
0.003878423
CGCM3.1 (T47)
0.000822331
CGCM3.1 (T63)
0.008297988
CNRM CM3
-0.002661171
CSIRO Mk3.0
-0.004071267
CSIRO Mk3.5
0.002891261
GFDL CM2.0
0.010607289
GFDL CM2.1
-0.009373989
GISS AOM
0.010586626
GISS EH
3.72635E-05
GISS ER
0.006881269
FGOALS g1.0
-0.008261236
INGV ECHAM4
-0.000885811
INM CM3.0
0.019439775
IPSL CM4
0.000612523
MIROC3.2 (hires)
0.017552506
MIROC3.2 (medres)
0.00368745
ECHO G
-0.009114739
ECHAM5/ MPI-OM
-0.008325985
MRI CGCM 2.3.2
-0.006205251
CCSM3.0
0.012407194
PCM
-0.008955884
UKMO HadCM3
0.012840406
UKMO HadGEM1
0.002333876

As you can see, I’ve highlighted the models which don’t have any 12 year periods of negative trends at all. That’s fifteen of 24, or 62.5%

Pretty bad I’d say. This is just a preliminary test, and more formal tests are on the way (as soon as I master R) and I should emphasize that I don’t know if these 15 models are more sensitive/warm more in the long run than the rest. But note the influential names.