How Did 2009 Shape Up?

On November 10th of last year, I speculated about how the annual Average Temperature of the lower 48 States would shape up that year. I think I was cautious about stating anything too confidently, but never the less I did make something of a noncommittal prediction:

The black dots represent the average of 2008’s twelve months, and the most recent twelve (November 2008-October 2009) and they are almost indistinguishable. However, the last few months have seen the moving average drop a little so it is not out of the realm of possibility for 2009 to be cooler than 2008 and exactly average for the US!

Now, I didn’t say that would happen. But let’s check back in on it now that the data have all come in. The following graph is like the one in my previous post, but with a line representing the long term average. As you can see, 2009 did turn out close to average. But it was not quite as low as I thought it could go.



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