Given recent announcements by surface temperature groups that the most recent decade (2000-2009) was warmer than the 1990’s, there are many (including James Hansen) that are claim this somehow “proves” global warming hasn’t “stopped”. Let’s start off by showing why this is erroneous in theory, and then I’ll go on to note what the present satellite situation is with regard to trends.
In theory, it is entirely possible for one ten average to be higher than the next even if the latter period has no trend. Consider the following series of numbers
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9
9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9
The mean of the first series is 5.4, the mean of the second is 9. Clearly series to is the highest on record. Clearly global counting continues unabated. Wait. No it doesn’t. The last twelve numbers have been 9’s, were as the previous eight were steadily increasing.
Now let’s look at the last 151 months from UAH. I’ve picked this arbitrarily because this is the longest non positive trend there is. So, yes, I cherry picked. But I cherry picked a remarkably long period of over twelve and a half years.