The Warmest Decade (151 months without warming)

Given recent announcements by surface temperature groups that the most recent decade (2000-2009) was warmer than the 1990’s, there are many (including James Hansen) that are claim this somehow “proves” global warming hasn’t “stopped”. Let’s start off by showing why this is erroneous in theory, and then I’ll go on to note what the present satellite situation is with regard to trends.

In theory, it is entirely possible for one ten average to be higher than the next even if the latter period has no trend. Consider the following series of numbers

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9

9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9

The mean of the first series is 5.4, the mean of the second is 9. Clearly series to is the highest on record. Clearly global counting continues unabated. Wait. No it doesn’t. The last twelve numbers have been 9’s, were as the previous eight were steadily increasing.

Now let’s look at the last 151 months from UAH. I’ve picked this arbitrarily because this is the longest non positive trend there is. So, yes, I cherry picked. But I cherry picked a remarkably long period of over twelve and a half years.

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2 Responses to “The Warmest Decade (151 months without warming)”

  1. Carrick Says:

    It’s also interesting to look at decadal averages.

    On that time scale it is true the (0 based) decade starting with 2000 is the warmest on record. (I prefer 30-year averages, but that’s just me.)

    Carrick

    UAH:

    1980-1990 -0.05
    1990-2000 0.06
    2000-2010 0.22

    RSS

    1980-1990 -0.06
    1990-2000 0.08
    2000-2010 0.26

    GISS

    1880-1890 -0.25
    1890-1900 -0.26
    1900-1910 -0.27
    1910-1920 -0.28
    1920-1930 -0.16
    1930-1940 -0.03
    1940-1950 0.04
    1950-1960 -0.02
    1960-1970 -0.01
    1970-1980 0.00
    1980-1990 0.18
    1990-2000 0.32
    2000-2010 0.51

    HADCRUT3VGL

    1850-1860 -0.38
    1860-1870 -0.37
    1870-1880 -0.28
    1880-1890 -0.30
    1890-1900 -0.39
    1900-1910 -0.44
    1910-1920 -0.43
    1920-1930 -0.30
    1930-1940 -0.13
    1940-1950 -0.07
    1950-1960 -0.16
    1960-1970 -0.12
    1970-1980 -0.09
    1980-1990 0.08
    1990-2000 0.24
    2000-2010 0.40

  2. timetochooseagain Says:

    I don’t dispute that 2000-2009 was warmer than 1990-1999, what I dispute is the claim that this somehow proves that warming has happened over the last twelve years. It still hasn’t if you consider UAH at least. Some recent statements by some of the HadCrut team have me wondering whether they are about to adjust their data to change the fact that they also don’t show warming in the last about twelve years.

    http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/01/21/comment-on-ams2010-data-gaps-and-errors-may-have-masked-warming-by-olive-heffernan-at-the-weblog-climate-feedback/

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