I’ve done some posts lately about the recent evolution of US temps according to NOAA’s NCDC.
Now, being a Right Wing Extremist, I would rather not trust the data that comes from the Commerce Department. I also think that GISS’s method for UHI adjustment makes more sense-mainly because they have one, rather than relying on change point detection to pick it up (which is laughable).
But I am endlessly frustrated with GISS over one teensy fact-I can find annual data for the US, but I can’t find monthly data. Which makes it impossible to follow the prospects for the final year ahead of time. So, for my own edification, I really just want to see what my 12 month moving average US temps would look like if it was GISS data. Well, sort of. Basically I created a quasi-12 month moving average GISS data set (AFTER re-baselining it to 1895-2009 and converting it to F with a 1.8 factor and adding the value of that black line I had as the long term average for NCDC, of course) and subtracted that from my running mean index. The result was a noisy mess but a positive underlying trend. So I calculated that trend and removed it from my running mean index. The result wasn’t a huge change in the NCDC data, but it was certainly interesting.
The same as before, but now with the warming relative to GISS removed.